Could the AD pandemic business landscape be the new normal and a glimpse into the future?
More than one year on and the pandemic shows no signs of abating as a new strain of the virus mutates and spreads faster than mass vaccination programs. As we write this piece, new strains of the virus have been detected in South Africa, Brazil, the UK, and parts of Europe. The movement of people continues to remain severely restricted. Travelers are being turned away at airports if the authorities believe they do not have a valid reason to travel.
The AD pandemic business landscape is accelerating the digitalization of businesses
The adoption of contactless payment systems is booming and the way society interacts is increasing more digital. The macro trend towards digitalization was already underway BC pandemic, but the inertia, the resistance of business to digitalize mainly due to costs has been canceled by the pandemic.
“the AD pandemic business landscape is accelerating the digitalization of businesses”
We believe that the AD pandemic business landscape could be permanently digital
In the BC pandemic era, many businesses had the option to either conduct their activities in the physical world or do so in cyberspace. But what the pandemic did was force businesses to either digitalize or go out of business. Moreover, once the inertia, the resistance to digitalization was removed. So, to stay operational businesses invested in the already existing technologies to go digital, and with the cost benefits now apparent, businesses are unlikely to transform backward to their more expensive ways of conducting business.
What impact will the AD pandemic business landscape have on investment portfolios?
If the AD pandemic economy continues to accelerate digitalization, then that could be a tailwind for companies in fourth revolution technologies which is bringing together digital, physical, and biological systems.
“if the AD pandemic economy continues to accelerate digitalization, then that could be a tailwind for companies in fourth revolution technologies”
In a piece, entitled “Investing-in-the-fourth-industrial-revolution,” dated October 2017 we wrote, “Whether it be mass autonomous transport powered by electricity or the advancements in artificial intelligence which creates a new form of being, a humanoid – a machine that appears and resembles humans with facial expressions and displays signs of (machine) intelligence, or block-chain technology which decentralizes data-one thing is clear, humanity is on the cusp of great change.”
Almost four years on and the AD pandemic business landscape has accelerated the great change, which is also referred to as the great reset “build back better” era.
“Bill Gates is warning that the next pandemic could be 10 times worse” – Bill Gates
AD pandemic business landscape could have changed air travel permanently
“The world has changed” for the aviation industry, said Warren Buffett in 2020 after he informed his Berkshire Hathaway investors that his fund sold its entire stakes in the four largest U.S. airlines in April 2020.
Moreover, Bill Gates, another billionaire, believes that work travel will change forever and he thinks that 50% of air travel will be going away forever. We remember being furious when he said that about a year ago and thinking what does the king of geek know. A lot, bearing in mind the ultra-wealthy move in inner circles, they know more than you or me. Do you think the Bilderberg group, where the world’s most powerful and influential people meet every year in absolute secrecy, no journalist allowed, discuss the weather and football? Bill Gates is warning that the next pandemic could be 10 times Bill Gates is warning that the next pandemic could be 10 times.
So, the AD pandemic business landscape is developing where more of our lives will be lived through an LCD screen in a dystopian world physically isolated where movements will be severely restricted. The manufacturing consent media will keep telling you that this is “the new normal”.
Think about it. Every part of human interaction whether it be for business purposes or social interaction is moving to digital.
The servicing and development of business customers could continue in cyberspace on the digital platform. Demand for video communications could continue in the AD pandemic business landscape. It will be interesting to see whether Zoom Video Communications Inc NASDAQ: ZM will continue providing investors with alpha returns in the AD pandemic era. If so, then demand for business travel has indeed shifted.
“Amazon with its maturing online platform is a factor in the brick-and-mortar meltdown” – Darren Winters
But if the AD pandemic business landscape is evolving in cyberspace, then perhaps the greatest impact will be felt in the commercial real estate market
We have been tracking and writing about the brick-and-mortar meltdown for years. “Amazon with its maturing online platform is a factor in the brick-and-mortar meltdown” Darren Winters wrote in a piece entitled, Brick-and-mortar meltdown in February 2019. If the trend towards online retailing was taking hold BC pandemic, then AD pandemic has rocket-fueled the trend towards online retailing.
With workers encouraged, or in some cases forced due to lockdowns to work from home the office has also gone digital and moved into cyberspace
So, businesses and workers are now discovering that they can save time and money working from home. In other words, the AD pandemic business landscape means that land as a factor of production is transforming into bits and bytes, a location in cyberspace. But farmland is the exception to this digital transformation. Food still needs to be grown in a physical location. Farmland could continue rising and holding its value well in the coming era of currency debasement.
Commercial real estate values could be most adversely impacted in the AD pandemic business landscape
The digitalization of businesses could be problematic for commercial real estate landlords and also their lenders, which could ripple through the financial markets. Bad loans in commercial real estate lending could spiral in an AD pandemic business landscape.
So, a year ago when the northern hemisphere was emerging from its winter I was writing about light at the end of the tunnel. Today, we see no light, instead, we see a transformation, a paradigm shift taking place in the AD pandemic business landscape. Humans are incredibly resourceful, highly adaptive, and able to survive and even thrive in varying environments. We are witnessing this transformation play out in the AD pandemic business landscape. Demand for digital builders, cyber cloud security, big data analysis, fintech, AVs is likely to grow going forward. Demand for home improvement products and services is also likely to do well.