The world order cycle is flagging geopolitical turbulence ahead.
We are in a multipolar world, according to John Mearsheimer who is warning of great trouble ahead.
Post WW2 Cold War era the world order cycle was in bipolarity 47 to 89
“With the end of the cold war, 1989, and certainly with the collapse of the soviet union, in 1991 we moved into a unipolar world,” he said.
“I would say in 2017 the world went from unipolarity to multipolarity,” he added.
Geopolitics, international trade, and global fiance will be impacted as the world order cycle moves from bipolarity and unipolarity to multipolarity.
“I would say in 2017 the world went from unipolarity to multipolarity”
Mearsheimer explained that in this current multipolar world, there are three great powers in the system, the United States, China, and Russia.
He sees two conflicting dyads, defined as two states with at least one great power in the current multipolar world.
“One is the US-China dyad the other is the other is US Russia dyad,” and he added
“I would contrast this with the cold war where you only had one dyad, which was the US-Soviet dyad.”
Great power politics makes the word order cycle dangerous and unpredictable in a multipolar world
In unipolarity, because there was only one great power there was no great power politics. “You cannot have great power politics when there is only one great power,” he said.
“Mearsheimer explained that in this current multipolar world, there are three great powers in the system, the United States, China, and Russia”
“Two conflicting dyads we have today are more dangerous than what existed during the cold war. The US-China dyad and the Russia-China dyad are more dangerous and likely to lead to a great power war than the US-Soviet dyad during the cold war,” he said.
Indeed, today US bilateral Relations with Russia are at an ebb with the last bilateral nuclear treaty collapsing in February 2023.
“Fear is a great constant of great powers in the International system” – John Mearsheimer
Word order cycle and nuclear weapons in a multipolar world
Nuclear weapons during the cold war bipolar period were considered a deterrent, their use was understood to constitute mutually assured destruction MAD.
President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985, said that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
Today, in 2023, after the US spent a trillion dollars modernizing its nuclear weapons with varying yields under the Obama administration, nuclear weapons are no longer seen as a deterrent but a modern weapons aiding strategic and tactical advantage in the theater of war. While Obama was collecting a Nobel Peace prize in 2009, the department of defense was beavering away making nuclear war winnable.
While Russia was working on the Minsk agreement, a series of international agreements to end the Donbass war in 2014, NATO was training and equipping Ukraine for war with Russia. Since the US’s existence, 1783 the hegemon has fought and won every battle against European states, beating the British in the US war of independence 1812, fighting a Naval war with France in the Caribbean 1798 and 1800, conquering the Spanish in 1898 to then become the dominant power in South America.
Pulverized Germany and Japan in WW2 turning populated cities into rubble and ashes with fire bombs and nukes.
The world order cycle in a multipolar world and miscalculation of the intentions of great powers increase the threat of nuclear war.
Mearsheimer explained that states are unclear about the intentions of other states. Offensive capabilities are material and visible things. “Intentions, particularly future intentions, are difficult to figure out because they are in people’s heads. So we could never figure out what Soveit’s intentions were. No one knows who will be running Russia in 20 years,” he said.
So power politics in a multipolar world and for states to survive and act rationally in a framework of no higher authority where both great powers are uncertain about each other’s intentions can lead to war.
“Fear is a great constant of great powers in the International system,” he said.
The US could believe Russia intends to rebuild the Soviet Union, citing the invasion of Georgia in 2008, the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and Ukraine in 2022.
“Multipolarity could mean that major trade treaties are in jeopardy” – Win Investing
Russia could think the US intends to invade Russia with NATO expansion five times near its border
The US empire has a long history of fighting just war and believes they are next to be conquered and dominated through wars, proxy wars, then imposing the rules.
Global domination could imply dominating Europe and Russia with its vast natural resources is a big piece on the Chess set.
WW2 defeat of industrial Germany, then 80 years pause so those alive to tell the horrors of war are dead. Could this be the final global war, WW3, the US planned war with Russia for global domination?
“In an anarchic world, the best way for a great power to survive is to be the most powerful state in the system,” he said.
So the two great powers Russia, and the US are not talking with their fingers on the nukes; Biden called Putin a thug, and Putin called Biden a terrorist.
World order cycle impact on global economics and finance
Multipolarity could mean that major trade treaties are in jeopardy.
OPEC announced a production cut despite the US pleading to keep pumping at the current rate to keep oil prices lower.
US reserve currency could also be in jeopardy
Brazil and China made a deal to ditch the US dollar for trade. Saudi Arabia has declared it would begin trading oil with China in the Yuan currency. China- African trade has topped $200 billion in Africa. European leader who wants to push for peace in Ukraine these days talking to China’s Xi.
There are now 20 new countries that want to join the BRICS outside the US dollar system.
India and China are estimated to become the two largest economies within a decade.
World order cycle and Fed monetary policy
With the world economic activity moving towards the BRICS, global demand for USD and US treasuries is likely to fall, which could put upward pressure on treasury yields and inflation forcing the Fed to raise its inflation threshold from 2% to at least 4%.
If so that could mean slower economic growth and a drop in living standards.