A limited nuclear war in Europe, a European type of Hiroshima with all its devastation, could now be within the realms of possibility.
“The escalating Russian-Ukrainian war is placing humanity at doom’s doorstep to nuclear war. We are just one hundred seconds to midnight from nuclear armageddon, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Doomsday Clock,” written in a piece entitled Nuclear War, dated May 2022
Fast forward, and the war on the east front has become a hellhole, bloodbath of the century, WW1-style trench warfare fought with 21st-century digital satellite technology guiding missiles and drones to their target.
The destiny of a soldier and his war machine is decided in the deadly silence of space as satellites placed into orbit in the celestial skies watch the battlefield like Hawkes. Integrated GPS-guided weapon systems, fired from stealth locations on the land, form Naval vessels lurking in the Black Sea or supersonic fighter jets in the air, and the target is then neutralised, or destroyed. The lifespan of a soldier is in weeks, with many not making it to a year.
“A limited nuclear war in Europe, a European type of Hiroshima with all its devastation, could now be within the realms of possibility”
The figure that Ukrainians and Russians have both lost half a million men of prime age at the front is credible, which is more men than the US lost in the entire WW2. It’s the first major war where the strategic advance, the higher ground, is in space.
Sending men and machines into battle without controlling the celestial skies, the satellites, or without capabilities to jam the signals that guide those missiles to their target is a bloody waste of good spunk and machines.
This war will be won or lost in space.
Why a limited nuclear war in Europe could be the best scenario?
Two great superpowers are locked in a power struggle, with both perceiving a defeat in Ukraine as an existential threat.
“It’s the first major war where the strategic advance, the higher ground, is in space”
US hegemony with the USD as the world reserve currency would wither on the wine if the US loses its geopolitical influence in Europe.
USD reserve currency status is linked inextricably to US geopolitical influence.
Russia perceives NATO’s expansion, five times in the last two decades, as a potential threat to its sovereign integrity.
“Great powers have buffer zones, and Ukraine is a Russian buffer zone” – Win Investing
Mikhail Gorbachev’s assurances that the NATO alliance would not expand past what was then the East German border in 1990 were breached by NATO many times. Moreover, a Russia-spearheaded 2014 Minsk Agreement, which intended for Ukraine (agrarian Russians) to coexist peacefully, had been ridiculed by the West and seen as an opportunity to arm and train Ukraine with NATO weapons in preparation for a war with Russia.
The above-mentioned is not speculation or a conspiracy theory, with both former chancellor Angela Merkel and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg admitting it.
So when two great powers armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons no longer trust each other and where diplomacy has collapsed, and war has ensued, the end game is a limited nuclear war in Europe.
Two many Russian redlines were exceeded, making a limited nuclear war in Europe likely.
Russia is as likely to surrender Ukraine from its orbit of influence as Israel is to give up their holy land to Palestine. It ain’t going to happen, and any honest political scientist worth his salt understands that.
Russia will fight to the end to keep Ukraine within its orbit of influence, even if it means a limited nuclear war
Ukraine is a big piece of the geopolitical landscape for Russia, more than the breadbasket of Europe and a major logistic energy hub between the East and the West.
Great powers have buffer zones, and Ukraine is a Russian buffer zone.
NATO missiles on Ukraine territory would give the West splendid first-strike capabilities. Ukraine falling away from Russian orbit would make it vulnerable to first-strike surprise attack capability, would lose the war, and probably cease to exist.
There is chatter that a million Russian man march on Ukraine is imminent, and if it fails, a limited nuclear war in Europe could come next.
“Last century, America justified dropping two nuclear weapons on Japan to save American lives” – Win Investing
Cease and desist strike, a limited nuclear war in Europe
Frankly, if Russia fails to contain Ukraine with conventional weapons, if they deplete weapons and human resources, most importantly, the next escalator phase is nuclear war.
Last century, America justified dropping two nuclear weapons on Japan to save American lives.
The sheer destructive power of the nuclear bomb, a peek into hell, forced Japan into immediate and unconditional surrender.
Russia could view Western puppet masters as hysterical over its waning economic and geopolitical influence and fear of losing hegemony.
A cease and desist strike, a limited nuclear war in Europe, could be the bitch slap shocking the West out of this Mutually Assured Destruction MAD footing
Frankly, with trust and diplomacy frozen and an ocean to bridge in building a strategic relationship with Russia, which could so easily prevent WW3 nuclear war, we are on a highway to the mother of all wars.
Given no change to this MAD trajectory, the best to hope for could be a limited nuclear war in Europe
Assuming Russia decides to launch a cease and desist strike, a limited nuclear war in Europe, and the strategy works, my fifty cents for investors is to get your assets out of Europe, particularly North and Central Europe. I would wait for the dust to settle, as financial markets would likely crash, along with European currencies.
The rest of the world will survive, but it will be under a different new world order.
When Japan got nuked in WW2, it was a horrific event, particularly for the people on the ground, but Japan survived, and so did Asia.
But if it goes Madmax and inter-ballistic continental nukes go flying for days, then it’s game over, and you can kiss your assets goodbye.
If it comes to that, and let’s hope not, we hope to see you all in a better place. The clip Stangelove comes to mind